There are five major matters on the table that I will be closely monitoring as the conference proceeds:

• Increased renewable energy capacity
• Progress toward an agreement to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy
• Evaluation of countries’ progress toward meeting efforts to reduce rates of global warming
• Willingness of developed nations to provide clean energy investments to developing countries
• Further discussion of the possibility of compensating developing countries for irreversible damage caused by climate change

Today was a day of storytelling narratives, with many leaders describing the ways in which extreme weather is wreaking havoc in their home countries. For example, Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said, “In Brazil, the climate emergency is already a reality.  The Amazon region is going through an unprecedented drought. The level of the rivers is the lowest in 120 years. I could never imagine that this would happen in a place where we have the greatest reservoir of fresh water in the world.”

One of the primary discussion topics of the day was reformation of the global financial system in order to lower barriers preventing developing countries from accessing financing for efforts to combat and adapt to climate change.  

There were three high-level foci today:  

1. The crucial role that women play in developing ground-level actions to address changes in climate,
2. How to accelerate national adaptation plans, and
3. The mechanics of providing funding for adaptation.

During her brief visit to COP28, US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a new $3 billion pledge to the UN’s Green Climate Fund, which helps developing countries invest in reducing emissions and adapting to climate shifts (that pledge cannot be fulfilled without the consent of Congress).

According to data-driven estimates compiled by the Boston Consulting Group, to attain net zero, public and private sector entities across the globe will need approximately $3.8 trillion in annual investment flows through 2025, and there is a growing acknowledgment that governments either can’t or won’t produce those dollars. 

More than 530 financial institutions (>$130 trillion) have committed to aligning their portfolios to net zero by 2050 by joining one of the seven financial sector net-zero alliances that make up the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.

The fossil fuel industry has tried to re-frame the greenhouse gas (GHG) issue as one of emissions only and assert that if GHGs could be sequestered or removed, we could continue to burn fossil fuels. On December 6th, Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) authored a letter that directed participating countries to “reject any text or formula that targets energy i.e. fossil fuels rather than emissions.” The directive is powerful because the COP rules require unanimous endorsement of any agreement.

These last two days of COP28 are the highest-pressure, with nations’ representatives working through the night to negotiate a fossil fuel agreement that can be acceptable to economics, politics, and cultures around the globe.

Action was taken on fossil fuels. While many were hoping for a phase-out timetable, and while others wanted only a reduction in “unabated” fossil fuels, the negotiated resolution called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” As a non-binding agreement, implementation depends on the actions of the participating countries. 

At the closing plenary session of COP28, 18 counties, including the US, issued the “Joint Statement on Climate, Nature and People.” The following paragraph is from the statement: 

“In this year of the first Global Stocktake . . . there is no path to fully achieve the near- and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement or the 2030 goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework^* without urgently addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation together in a coherent, synergetic and holistic manner, in accordance with the best available science.”

Some strategic takeaways are empowering participants and observers to declare COP28 to have been a success.

• COP28 saw a commitment to double efficiencies, triple renewables, and to transition away from fossil fuels (although many were disappointed that stronger language didn’t survive the consensus-building). Also, although the loss-and-damage fund was previously established, it was unfunded until the pledges made at COP28.
• There was strong opposition to having the World Bank handle the loss-and-damage fund, but no viable alternatives were put forward.  Accordingly, the decision was to allow the World Bank to administer the funds for a limited period of four years, with clear rules to be promulgated within six months.
• There was acknowledgement that the consensus-building and unanimity requirements of COPs make progress slow, and that enforcement is on the honor system; however, all countries have an equal voice at the table, and all peoples are heard.